Population projections

Population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population.  They are based on population estimates and a set of assumptions on birth rates, death rates and migration.  Projections are available for local authorities in England as subnational population projections that are published every two years, with the most recent based on mid-2018 population estimates.  Projections are given forward to the year 2043 at the local authority levels and the year 2118 for England, but it is recognised that they become less reliable the farther into the future the projection is made.  These projections can be used for resource allocation and planning, including predicting future need and demand of services.

Between the years 2022 and 2037, the population in Trafford is projected to increase by 5.3% slightly lower than 5.7% increase across England.

According to broad age group, the number of 0-19 year olds is projected to decrease by 1,420 (-2.3%).  The number of working age adults in the 40-64 years age group is projected to increase by 3,806 (4.6%).  Growth is highest in the over 80 years of age group – a projected increase of 3,879 (31.6%). 

Table 1 below gives a breakdown of the projections by broad age groups. It can be seen that there is a slight decline in projected population in those under 19 years of age. There is no decline in any broad age group over 20 years of age and the projected population is increasing in these age groups.

Table 1: Projected change in population in Trafford (2022 to 2037) by broad group

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2020

Page last updated: 8th February 2022