Population projections

Population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population.  They are based on population estimates and a set of assumptions on birth rates, death rates and migration.  Projections are available for local authorities in England as subnational population projections that are published every two years, with the most recent based on mid-2018 population estimates.  Projections are given forward to the year 2043 at the local authority levels and the year 2118 for England, but it is recognised that they become less reliable the farther into the future the projection is made.  These projections can be used for resource allocation and planning, including predicting future need and demand of services.

Between the years 2021 and 2036, the population in Trafford is projected to increase by 5.5% slightly lower than 6.8% increase across England.

According to broad age groups, the number of 0-19 year olds is projected to decrease by 1048 (-1.7%).  The number of working age adults in the 40-64 years age group is projected to increase by 4,202 (5.2%).  Growth is highest in the over 80 years of age group – a projected increase of 3,638 (29.6%) (See Table 1 below).

Table 1: Projected change in population in Trafford (2021 to 2036) by broad age group


 Source: Office for National Statistics, 2020


Page last updated: 15th January 2021