TRAFFORD-JSNA

Population projections

Population projections provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population.  They are based on population estimates and a set of assumptions about birth and death rates and migration.  They are available for local authorities in England as subnational population projections which are published every two years, with the most recent based on 2016 population estimates.  Projections are given forward to 2041, but it is recognised that they become less reliable the farther into the future the projection is made.  These projections can be used for resource allocation and planning, including projecting future need for and demand on services.

Between 2016 and 2031, the Trafford population is projected to increase by 20,400 (8.7%), proportionally slightly higher than the increase across England as a whole (8.2%). 

According to broad age group, the number of 0-19 year olds is projected to increase by 4,300 (7.2%) and the number of working age adults (18-64) to increase by 4,000 (3%).  Growth is greatest in the 65+ age group – a projected increase of 11,700 (29%).  (Figure 1)

Figure 2 gives a breakdown of the projections by 5-year-age group.  It can be seen that in some age bands a decline in population is projected, including among those aged under 10 and those aged 25 to 34.

Figure 1: Projected change in population in Trafford (2016 to 2031) by broad age group

Source: ONS 2016-based Subnational Population Projections

Figure 2: Projected change in population in Trafford (2016 to 2031) by 5-year age group

Source: ONS 2016-based Subnational Population Projections

 

This page was last modified on 25/06/2018 15:15:00