Age well

Key demographics

  • There are an estimated 41,469 people aged 65 and over living in Trafford. This amounts to 17.6% of the total population, proportionally similar to England (18.5%).   Trafford’s 65+ population is made up of 22,862 females (55.1% of the total 65+ population) and 18,607 males (44.9% of the total 65+ population) (ONS, 2021).
  • In Bowdon and Hale Barns wards in South Trafford almost 1 in 4 of the total population is aged 65 and over (25.5% in Bowdon and 24.6% in Hale Barns), whereas in Clifford (9.3%) and Gorse Hill (10.9%) wards in the North, the proportion is much lower at around 1 in 10 (ONS, 2020).
  • Between 2020 and 2035 the number of people aged 65 and over resident in Trafford is projected to grow by 9,654 (23.2%), proportionally lower than the projected growth across England as a whole in this age group (31.5%) (ONS, 2020).
  • Around 1 in 20 (5.5%) of the 65+ population belongs to an ethnically diverse community – predominantly Asian (3.3%) and Black (1.5%).  This compares to 21.8% of the all age population. (Census, 2021).
  • There are an estimated 11,937 people aged 80 and over living in Trafford representing 5.1% of the total population, proportionally similar to England (5%).  Trafford’s 80+ population is made up of 7199 females (60.3 % of the total 80+ population) and 4,738 males (39.7% of the total 85+ population) (ONS, 2021).
  • Within Trafford, the proportion of the population aged 80+ ranges from 2.9% in Gorse Hill ward (North of the borough) to 8.4% in Bowdon ward (South of the borough) (ONS, 2020).
  • If trends continue, between 2021 and 2036, the number of people aged 80 and over resident in Trafford is projected to grow by 3,638 (29.6%), proportionally lower than the projected growth across England as a whole in this age group (47.4%) (ONS, 2020).

 

Determinants of Health

  • Around 13.8% of over 60s in Trafford live in income deprived household with wide variation across Trafford wards. Income deprivation in over 60s ranges from 5% in Bowdon ward to 41.3% in Clifford ward (IMD, 2019).
  • A third (13.3%) of Trafford pensioners live alone, ranging from 17.1% in Flixton ward (West Trafford) to 8.1% in Clifford ward (North Trafford) (ONS, 2021).

 

Indicators of health and wellbeing

  • Life expectancy at age 65 is 18.9 years for males and 21.4 years for females (statistically similar to England).
  • Healthy life expectancy at age 65 is 13.2 years for males (statistically better than England) and 12.5 years for females (statistically similar to England).
  • There is a tendency for more deprived wards in Trafford to have proportionally fewer older people, compared to more affluent wards. However, in terms of predicting health needs, this needs to balance against the tendency for people living in deprived wards to experience ill health. For instance, the proportion of the population with a limiting long-term illness ranges from 10.3% in Hale Central to more than twice that (23.5%) in Bucklow-St-Martins, with a general trend towards higher rates in the more deprived areas (in spite of their younger age structure (ONS, 2021).

The Office for Health Improvements and Disparities (OHID) publishes profiles of Older People’s Health and Wellbeing which contain a range of population indicators which can be benchmarked against Trafford’s statistical peers as well as the England average.  Some key points for Trafford:

  • It is well recognised that a majority of people would prefer to die at home.  The percentage of deaths that occur at home in Trafford in 2021 for those aged 65 to 74 years is 36.3%, for those aged 75 to 84 it is 27.0%, and 21.2% for those aged 85 and older. (Palliative and End of Life Care Profiles, 2021).
  • In the three year period 2017/18 to 2019/20, there were 230 excess winter deaths among people aged 85 years and over, with this index for Trafford being statistically similar to the England average (Productive Healthy Aging Profile, 2020).
  • Rates of death among individuals over 65 years of age from the three main causes of mortality for 2021(Productive Healthy Aging Profile, 2019): 
    • Cardiovascular disease: 444 deaths, and the rate is statistically similar to England.
    • Cancer: 454 deaths, and the rate is statistically similar to England and reducing over time at a similar rate to England
    • Respiratory disease: 174 deaths, and the rate is similar to that of England.
  • For the year 2020, the recorded dementia  prevalence (3.98%) was similar to the average for England (3.97%). Data from 2022 suggests that the estimated dementia diagnosis rate among over 65s in Trafford (59.5%) is below the 66.7% target and worse than the England average (62.0%) (Productive Healthy Aging Profile, 2022)
  • For the year 2021/22, 220 people aged 65+ were admitted to hospital as an emergency with a hip fracture, and 935 were admitted due to falls (Productive Healthy Ageing Profile, 2022). 

 

Further Reading