Age well

Key demographics

  • There are an estimated 41,200 people aged 65 and over living in Trafford. This amounts to 17.3% of the total population, proportionally similar to England (18.4%).   Trafford’s 65+ population is made up of 22,700 females (55% of the total 65+ population) and 18,500 males (45% of the total 65+ population) (ONS, 2019).
  • In Bowdon and Hale Barns wards almost 1 in 4 of the total population is aged      65 and over (25.6% in Bowdon and 24.6% in Hale Barns), whereas in Clifford      (9%) and Gorse Hill (10.8%) wards in the North, the proportion is much lower at around 1 in 10 (ONS, 2019).
  • Between 2020 and 2035 the number of people aged 65 and over resident in Trafford is projected to grow by 9,654 (23.2%), proportionally lower than the projected growth across England as a whole in this age group (31.5%) (ONS, 2020).
  • Around 1 in 20 (4.8%) of the 65+ population belongs to a Black and Minority Ethnic group – predominantly Asian (2.4%) and Black (1.7%).  This compares to 14.5% of the all age population. (ONS, 2011).
  • There are an estimated 12,249 people aged 80 and over living in Trafford      representing 5.2% of the total population, proportionally similar to England (5%).  Trafford’s 80+ population is made up of 7381 females (60.3 % of the total 80+ population) and 4,868 males (39.7% of the total 85+ population) (ONS, 2019).
  • Within Trafford, the proportion of the population aged 80+ ranges from 2.8% in Gorse Hill ward (North of the borough) to 8.7% in Bowdon ward (South of the borough) (ONS, 2019).
  • If trends continue, between 2021 and 2036, the number of people aged 80 and over resident in Trafford is projected to grow by 3,638 (29.6%), proportionally lower than the projected growth across England as a whole in this age group (47.4%) (ONS, 2020).

Determinants of Health

  • Around 13.8% of over 60s in Trafford live in income deprived household with wide variation across Trafford wards. Income deprivation in over 60s ranges from 5% in Bowdon ward to 41.3% in Clifford ward (IMD, 2019).
  • A third (33.3%) of Trafford pensioners live alone, ranging from around a fifth (22.6%) in Bowdon ward to twice that (42.4%) in Priory ward (ONS, 2011).
  • An estimated 1 in 10 (10.4%) Trafford households are in fuel poverty similar to England average (10.3%) (Productivity Healthy Aging Profile, 2018).

Indicators of health and wellbeing

  • Remaining life expectancy at age 65 is 19.1 years for males and 21.6 years for females (statistically similar to England).
  • Healthy life expectancy at age 65 is 11.3 years for males and 11.9 years for females (statistically similar to England).
  • There is a tendency for more deprived wards in Trafford to have proportionally fewer older people, compared to more affluent wards. However, in terms of predicting health needs, this needs to balance against the tendency for people living in deprived wards to experience ill health. For instance, the proportion of the population with a limiting long-term illness ranges from 10.3% in Hale Central to more than twice that (22.5%) in Bucklow-St-Martins, with a general trend towards higher rates in the more deprived areas (in spite of their younger age structure (Local Health, 2011).

Public Health England publishes profiles of Older People’s Health and Wellbeing which contain a range of population indicators which can be benchmarked against Trafford’s statistical peers as well as the England average.  Some key points for Trafford:

  • It is well recognised that a majority of people would prefer to die at home.  Percentage of deaths that take place in the usual place of residence in Trafford for those aged 65-74 years is 35.3%, for those aged 75 to 84 it is 36.6%, and 45.8% for those aged 85 and older. This means that the percentage of deaths in the usual place of residence is improving but remains statistically lower than the England average (47.2%) for those aged 75+, and statistically similar for those aged 65-74. Trafford is among the lowest when compared to its statistical peers (Palliative and End of Life Care Profiles, 2017).
  • In the three year period 2016/17 to 2018/19, there were 236 excess winter      deaths among people aged 85 years and over, with this index for Trafford      being statistically similar to the England average (Productive Healthy Aging Profile, 2019).
  • Rates of death among individuals over 65 years of age from the three main causes of mortality for the three year period 2017-2019 (Productive Healthy Aging Profile, 2019): 
    • Cardiovascular disease: 1,424 deaths (average of 475 deaths per year); the rate is statistically similar to England and reducing over time
    • Cancer: 1,331 deaths (average of 444 per year); rate is statistically similar to England and reducing over time at a similar rate to England
    • Respiratory disease: 781 deaths (average of 260 per year) but has moved from lower than England average to similar to England average (statistically significant).
  • For the year 2019, 1,913 over 65s were included on a GP dementia register and the recorded prevalence (4.59%) was higher than the average for England (4.34%). Data from 2020 suggests that the estimated dementia diagnosis rate among over 65s in Trafford (68.4%) is above the 66.7% target and similar to England average (67.4%) (Productive Healthy Aging Profile, 2020)
  • For the year 2019, 235 people aged 65+ were admitted to hospital as an emergency with a hip fracture. Whilst the rate of admissions is similar to      England, hip fracture is debilitating – one in three sufferers ends up leaving their own home and moving to long-term care.

Detailed information on Age Well can be found here.


Further Reading

Public Health Annual Report 2018, focussed on Age Well