TRAFFORD-JSNA

Age well

Key demographics

  • There are an estimated 40,619 people aged 65 and over living in Trafford.  This amounts to 17.2% of the total population, proportionally similar to England (18.0%).   Trafford’s 65+ population is made up of 22,465 females (55.3% of the total 65+ population) and 18,154 males (44.7% of the total 65+ population) (ONS, Mid-2017 estimates)
  • In Bowdon and Hale Barns wards almost 1 in 4 (24.4%) of the total population is aged 65 and over, whereas in Clifford and Gorse Hill wards, in the North, the proportion is much lower at around 1 in 10  (ONS, mid-2016 ward level estimates)
  • Between 2016 and 2031 the number of people aged 65 and over resident in Trafford is projected to grow by 11,700 (29%), proportionally lower than the projected growth across England as a whole in this age group (33.2%) (ONS, 2016-based subnational population projections)
  • Around 1 in 20 (4.8%) of the 65+ population belongs to a Black and Minority Ethnic group – predominantly Asian (2.4%) and Black (1.7%).  This compares to 14.5% of the all age population. (ONS, 2011 Census)
  • There are an estimated 5,934 people aged 85 and over living in Trafford representing 2.5% of the total population, proportionally similar to England (2.4%).  More females are aged over 85 (3,862 or 3.2% of total population) than males (2,072 or 1.8% of total population).  (ONS, mid-2016 revised estimates)
  • Within Trafford, the proportion of the population aged 85+ ranges from 1.2% in Gorse Hill ward, in the North of the borough, to 4.8% in Bowdon ward, in the South. (ONS, mid-2016 estimates)
  • If trends continue, between 2016 and 2031, the number of people aged 85 and over resident in Trafford is projected to grow by 2,100 (35%), proportionally lower than the projected growth across England as a whole in this age group (51.5%) (ONS, 2016-based subnational population projections)

Determinants of Health

  • 7,367 (14.8%) of over 60s in Trafford live in income deprived households, proportionally lower than the average for England (16.2%), but ranging within Trafford from 6.7% in Bowdon ward to 42% in Clifford ward. (PHE – Local Health/2015 Indices of Deprivation) 
  • A third (33.3%) of Trafford pensioners live alone, ranging from around a fifth (22.6%) in Bowdon ward to twice that (42.4%) in Priory ward.  (ONS, 2011 Census)
  • An estimated 1 in 9 (11.1%) Trafford households are in fuel poverty, the same as the England average (11.1%) (2016 data)

Indicators of health and wellbeing

  • Remaining life expectancy at age 65 is 18.9 years for males (statistically similar to England) and 21.6 years for females (better than England).  (ONS, 2014-16)
  • Healthy life expectancy at birth for males (62.7 years) is statistically similar to England, but well below pensionable age.  The figure for females is 66.2 years (better than England).  (Source: ONS 2014-16).  Within Trafford there is a wide inequality in healthy life expectancy – with the figure for the most deprived areas around 16 years lower than the least deprived.  (ONS 2009-2013)
  • There is a tendency for more deprived wards in Trafford to have proportionally fewer older people, compared to more affluent wards.  However, in terms of predicting health needs, this needs to be balanced against the tendency for people living in deprived wards to experience poorer health.  For instance, the proportion of the population with a limiting long-term illness ranges from 10.3% in Hale Central to more than twice that (22.5%) in Bucklow-St-Martins, with a general trend towards higher rates in the more deprived areas (in spite of their younger age structure).  (ONS, Census 2011)

Public Health England publishes profiles of Older People’s Health and Wellbeing which contain a range of population indicators which can be benchmarked against Trafford’s statistical peers as well as the England average.  Some key points for Trafford:

  • It is well recognised that a majority of people would prefer to die at home.  Among people aged 65 years and over, the percentage of deaths which take place in the usual place of residence in Trafford (39.6%) is improving but remains statistically lower than the England average (47.2%), and the lowest among Trafford’s statistical peers. (2016 data)
  • Rates of death among over 65s from the three main causes for the three year period 2014-16: 
    •  Cardiovascular disease: 1,411 deaths (average of 470 per year); the rate is statistically similar to England and reducing over time
    • Cancer: 1,318 deaths (average of 439 per year); rate is statistically similar to England and reducing over time at a similar rate to England
    • Respiratory disease: 721 deaths (average of 240 per year); the rate is reducing at a similar rate to England and has moved from statistically similar to statistically lower than England
  • In the three year period 2013/14 to 2015/16, there were 174 excess winter deaths among people aged 85 years and over, with this index for Trafford being statistically similar to the England average.
  • As at August 2018, 1,974 over 65s were included on a GP dementia register.  The estimated dementia diagnosis rate among over 65s in Trafford (74.5%) is above the 66.7% target and higher than England average (67.5%).
  • During 2016/17, 237 people aged 65+ were admitted to hospital as an emergency with a hip fracture.  Whilst the rate of admissions is similar to England, hip fracture is debilitating – one in three sufferers ends up leaving their own home and moving to long-term care.

 

This page was last modified on 06/11/2018 11:46:00